Manny Machado Hall of Fame Analysis
Breaking Down the Third Baseman’s Odds at First Ballot
Credit: Fox 5 news
Overview
There is no doubt that Manny Machado is one of the best players in the game today, with sustained greatness at third base as he continues to pile on all-star level seasons as he enters his mid thirties. This report will not only break down his chances at the Hall, but analyze his career as a whole to see where he stacks up in terms of expected numbers and individual accolades in comparison to the field. Drafted #3 overall in 2010 by the Baltimore Orioles, Machado was originally a highly touted high school shortstop with flashy big league tools. As a teenager, Machado only played in 156 total minor league games before getting the call in the middle of the 2012 season as a 19 year old. Machado played 6.5 seasons for Baltimore appearing in 4 All-Star games and earning 2 Gold Gloves at third in the process.
His ability to shift over to 3rd helped him get called up earlier, as the O’s had All-Star shortstop JJ Hardy at short during this time. He was traded to the Dodgers during the deadline of the 2018 season putting up the best season of his career to date hitting .297 with 37 HR’s driving in 107 runs with an OPS of .905. Machado also added his highest number of walks in a season with 70 paired with his 2nd lowest number of strikeouts with 104 while playing in all 162 games. Pictured below are his current stats along with some averages in Excel:
Consistency has arguably been Machado’s most impressive feat as he’s played over 135 games in every full MLB season thus far. Recently Machado joined an elite club as only 11 other players in MLB history have reached both 350 home runs and 2,000 hits before their age 32 season. Those 11 other players? All first ballot Hall of Famers despite Alex Rodriguez, who is also the only other (part time) third baseman on that list.
Hall of Fame Analysis:
Based on Machado’s career resume we touched a little on earlier, his chances at the Hall look good barring any extreme sudden decline or injury. Manny’s chances of getting in on the first ballot are extremely realistic based on his projections. Here is a list of players he would be joining as First Ballot HOF 3rd Baseman:
Brooks Robinson (1983)
George Brett (1999)
Chipper Jones (2018)
Paul Molitor (2004
Adrian Beltre (2024)
Mike Schmidt (1995)
Wade Boggs (2005)
A major facet working in Manny’s favor is the positional representation of third baseman in the Hall as of today. Pictured below is a pie chart to visualize this representation graphically:
A mere 5% representation of third baseman accounts to only 19 current Hall of Famers at the position, which is good for the lowest amount out of any other positional group excluding Designated Hitter. To analyze Manny’s odds more in depth, I wanted to take a look at his projected stats with accounting for natural aging regression.
Forecasting Analysis
To predict Manny’s odds by the end of his career, forecasting his numbers for the rest of the duration of his contract gives us the most accurate feedback to see what he is on pace for. To do this, I used Manny’s career games played average of 145 (excluding 2020 and Rookie seasons) and used various methods such as sabermetrics data, excel formulas and comparisons to other 3B Hall of Famer seasons after their age 33 seasons, to come to as accurate of a forecast as possible for WAR, Avg, HR, Hits and RBI. It’s important to note these numbers aren’t set in stone and don’t account for potential injury or outlier seasons. These numbers for the duration of his San Diego contract are pictured below.
Using these numbers we will analyze 4 different benchmarks Machado needs to hit by the end of his career to be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Our first category is from Baseball sabermetrician Jay Jaffe who uses a statistic called the JAWS score to analyze Hall of Fame chances in relation to others already in the Hall at the same position.
Category 1: JAWS Score = Career War + 7 Year War Peak / 2
Typically a career WAR over 70 and a JAWS Score of 55-60 is a crucial benchmark to hit for 3rd Baseman. Currently, Machado’s JAWS Score is currently 51.9 at only age 31. Using our forecasted numbers his JAWS Score would be 61.95 by the end of his age 41 season placing a comfortable check mark for this category. For reference, Chipper Jones the 3B with the highest voter inductee percentage at 97.2% had a JAW Score of 66 to end his career.
Category 2: Around 2500 Hits
Typically 2,500 for a 3B is a sure fire guarantee for the Hall but anywhere from the 2,000-2,500 range has typically good odds. Manny just hit his 2,000th hit on July 7th and our predicted stats say he will eclipse 2,500 hits easily with a real shot at 3,000 barring any injury.
Category 3: 350 Home Runs
Manny currently has 361 home runs to his name and will be over 400 easily. For reference, Chipper Jones finished with 468 and Adrian Beltre finished with 477. Machado has this category locked up and his consistent power numbers really help him out here.
Category 4: Awards and Accolades
This one is interesting. Manny has 5 top ten MVP finishes, most notably where he finished 2nd in 2022 and 3rd in the 2020 shortened season. He also has 7 All-Star appearances to his name, starting at 3B this past season. Defensive value comes into play here as well, with 2 Gold Gloves, but it should be mentioned that he was playing in the same era as a lot of other really savvy defensive third baseman. Typically an MVP finish or postseason dominance helps bolster your case, most notably with Mike Schmidt’s 3 MVPs and Chipper Jones’ in 1999. This would be the one category Machado will falter slightly in, although I think his resume up to now is extremely consistent.
Credit: TSN.com
Counterargument Against his Case
Machado’s resume speaks for itself, as I firmly believe he will end up a first ballot Hall of Famer after conducting this analysis. Despite this I wanted to at least address some good points as to why this might not happen.
Firstly I’d bring up the fact that there was really no point where Manny was cut and dry the best at his position in the league. Consistency no doubt, but early in his career Adrian Beltre was still peaking and during his mid twenties Nolan Arenado’s peak was slightly more impressive. Entering his 30’s he and Jose Ramirez shared similar numbers with many regarding Ramirez as the more complete player.
My second main counterargument would be his statistical defensive decline. Other Hall of Famers defensive consistency were still present late into their 30’s but Manny has weird seasons of negative outs above average (OAA) where he is in the bottom 20 percentile of the league and other years where he is in the 90th + percentile. Overall the reason I think it is a non-factor is because of his highlight plays and his ability to get to balls that others couldn’t even reach skewing these numbers.
My final counterargument is a minor one, but becomes relevant when analyzing individual feelings of the voters. Machado hasn’t had the best reputation around baseball during his career with a series of dirty plays and nasty ejections early in his career. His attitude has improved after joining San Diego as he’s turned into a leader and the face of a franchise, but baseball fans hold grudges and some of his actions won’t be forgotten. There are players who have pulled similar antics that are in the Hall already, and he should be a sure-fire to get in but this could really only affect his chances at being first ballot.